Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Looks like my delegate poll data needs an overhaul...

Looks like my delegate poll data needs an overhaul. I am finding Zogby's Polling results to be very questionable. It seems they include a bias for who ever has paid for the poll.

If you run the numbers of delegates an interesting detail appears to me. If Romney won California he would have been 50 delegates ahead of McCain. In essence California has given us a very shakey Republican front runner.

I read an interesting quote from GOPUSA's Tony Blankley this morning.

  • "Assuming John McCain gets the GOP nomination, it will show how whimsical history can be. It would be the first time in living memory that a Republican presidential nomination went to a candidate who was not merely opposed by a majority of the party but was actively despised by about half its rank-and-file voters across the country -- and by many, if not most, of its congressional officeholders."

I understand it there were more than 2 million early voters that will not be counted until next week. There were only 2.2 million Republican voters yesterday that means there are nearly as many uncounted votes as counted in that key state.

Not that it is something to expect but if that vote switched from McCain to Romney's favor it would give Romney a major political coupe and a 51 delegate edge over McCain. It is an extreme outside long shot but it has happened before that race have been changed by the early voters.

I am not holding out hope on this but it is an observation, but that is something I see as I look at the numbers in California this morning.

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